Frequently Asked Questions
Ridership
How is ridership projected for future years?
Ridership estimates for any transit project typically are calculated through a travel demand model developed by the local Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), the local transit agency or a similar organization. Transit projects in Baltimore use the travel demand model developed by the Baltimore Metropolitan Council, the region's local MPO.
Similar to the majority of models in use across the country, the BMC travel demand model estimates ridership in a four-step process:
- Trip Generation: estimating how many people will travel to and from small geographic areas within the metropolitan area.
- Trip Distribution: estimating how many people will travel between each geographic area. For example, if the first step estimated that 200 people will travel to the Inner Harbor, this step might estimate 40 of those 200 people will come from Towson, and 35 people will come from Woodlawn.
- Mode Choice: estimating how many people will take transit versus automobile.
- Assignment: designating auto trips to the highway network and transit trips to the transit network, specific buses and rail services.
Other steps in the model process include accounting for truck traffic and how people taking transit actually get to the transit stop or station.
Developing travel demand models is data-intensive and time-consuming work. It is an ongoing process involving constant data updates to reflect changing conditions and new land use projections. Also part of a travel demand model are population and employment estimates; highway and transit networks and speeds; access links to connect the geographic zones to the highway and transit networks; transit routes; frequencies; number of stops and stations; station parking and bus access, and fares and other costs. After the data is obtained all of it is calibrated to actual, observed counts to ensure the model reflects reality. This work is performed for the Baltimore area by the Baltimore Metropolitan Council.
Also added to the BMC model is an estimate of the number of people who might use the Red Line, its guideway and any bus or rail service changes that are part of a proposed alternative. Each alternative includes the guideway, stations, station facilities (park-and-ride), travel speeds, frequencies (number of trains or buses per hour) and fares. The model is then run through a computer (a 10-hour process) and results are checked for reasonableness.
One of the important results from the travel demand model computer runs is the number of new transit passengers, those who choose to take transit rather than use their automobile for some portion of their daily trips. This measure indicates the attractiveness of the new service relative to highway travel times and costs. But a more important result of any travel demand run is what are called "user benefits" or "user benefit hours" - the measure of time savings not only for those who switch from the automobile to transit but the time savings to those who already take transit but now experience shorter travel times after implementation of new service. The measure expresses the benefits for all transit users, not only those who stopped using their automobile for their travel.
How many people are expected to ride the Red Line?
The AA/DEIS presents the projected weekday ridership estimated for the year 2030. The ridership projections are:
Alternative 2: 17,600
Alternative 3A: 31,400
Alternative 3B: 37,400
Alternative 3C: 37,400
Alternative 3D: 41,500
Alternative 3E: 29,300
Alternative 3F: 34,300
Alternative 4A: 34,600
Alternative 4B: 41,100
Alternative 4C: 42,100
Alternative 4D: 42,300